Truckload contract rates hit a 52-week high: how to run freight bids when capacity, not demand, sets the price

The details

The rate data. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which excludes fuel and accessorials and is weighted toward contract rates, rose 10.1% year over year in September and 0.6% from August. It is the index’s highest reading in four years and its 21st straight month of annual growth, for a two-year gain of 12.9%. FreightWaves SONAR put contract rates at a 52-week high of $2.72 per mile plus fuel on Oct. 9, up 18% on the year. Spot rates on SONAR’s National Truckload Index were up nearly 50%, and the outbound tender reject index was 13.75%, inside a 13% to 14% range.

Cass noted that sequential growth slowed slightly because spot rates eased and fewer contracts are bid at this time of year. “Even as spot rates slow with modest sequential declines, the much larger contract market is still adjusting higher,” it said.

Spend is rising faster than rates. Cass’s expenditure index, which includes fuel, rose 20.4% on the year in September. Diesel was 68% above September 2025 and 15% above August. Shipments rose 1.9%, only the second annual increase after 42 straight months of declines, and Cass expects October shipments up about 4% and expenditures up about 23%.

Demand is improving, but modestly. Cass described freight demand as “recovering,” citing modest retail and industrial growth, restocking as container imports surge, a smaller private fleet and rising equipment sales. The ISM manufacturing index was 54.5 in September, its ninth straight month of expansion. High fuel prices are also pushing some freight from road to rail.

Regional spikes. Weather can tighten local markets quickly. In early October, Tropical Storm Isaías pushed tender rejections and spot rates noticeably higher in Mobile and Montgomery, Alabama, with inbound rejections climbing sharply relative to the national average, according to FreightWaves. Shippers with lanes in storm-prone regions should keep backup carriers and brokers qualified even when national conditions look stable.

Intermodal as a pressure valve. With diesel high, some freight is moving from truck to rail, and FreightWaves’ SONAR now benchmarks intermodal rates against van rates, including the nearest rail ramps for each lane. For long-haul, time-tolerant freight, an intermodal comparison belongs in every 2027 bid.

Spot is closing the gap. Spot rates have risen faster than contract rates, and the narrowing gap between them gives carriers more leverage as annual bids renew, FreightWaves analyst Julie Van de Kamp said. Truckload demand rose about 1.25% week over week in early October, back to pre-Labor Day levels after a post-holiday dip. When spot sits close to contract, carriers have less reason to accept contracted loads at old rates, which is how tender rejections stay in the 13% to 14% range.

The carrier cost math

SONAR’s latest market analysis, “The Repricing Isn’t Finished,” argues that “capacity is leaving faster than freight.” Its numbers explain why carriers are holding firm:

In 2022, contract linehaul left carriers about $1.01 per loaded mile above non-fuel costs. By 2025 that cushion had shrunk to about 26 cents, and spot linehaul was below non-fuel cost every year from 2023 through 2025. The fastest-rising costs in 2025 were tolls (up 13.2%), repair and maintenance (8.6%), driver benefits (6.6%) and tires (6.4%), with insurance up another 6.4% in early 2026. ATRI found carriers cut effective capacity 5.5% in 2025, and SONAR data showed for-hire tractor counts falling by about 51,000 in a single month.

SONAR models a typical dry van truck at Q3 2026 rates covering its marginal costs but contributing only about 15% of revenue to overhead, against roughly 26% that ATRI’s truckload carriers needed in 2025. Closing that gap would take rates about 14% higher. On the $2.69 Q3 average, that is about $3.07 per mile, by our calculation. That is why analysts describe the repricing as only about halfway done.

Carriers are confident. At an investor conference in September, truckload executives said they hold a position of strength this bid season and expect the capacity exodus to grow as regulatory enforcement removes thousands more unsafe operators. Werner guided to a 10% to 13% increase in rate per total mile for its one-way fleet in the third quarter. SONAR’s projection for the Chicago-to-Atlanta lane shows rates holding near current levels into 2027, not falling back.

What procurement teams should do

• Segment lanes before you bid. Protect high-volume, high-service lanes with committed carriers. Put low-volume or irregular lanes on shorter terms or a managed spot strategy.
• Separate fuel from linehaul. Use a fuel surcharge table tied to the weekly DOE/EIA diesel index so linehaul negotiations aren’t distorted by diesel swings.
• Budget realistically. If your 2027 freight budget assumes flat rates, revisit it with finance now. Q3 dry van contract rates are already about 16% above the 2025 average, by our calculation, and carriers are signaling more.
• Watch acceptance, not just price. Track tender acceptance by carrier monthly. A low rate that carriers reject costs more once loads roll to the spot market at rates up nearly 50% on the year.
• Reward consistency. Carriers favor shippers with predictable volumes, quick dock times and fast payment. Those terms can be worth more than a few cents per mile.
• Check reefer separately. SONAR says refrigerated contract rates are furthest behind costs, so expect larger increases on temperature-controlled lanes.

How to structure a 2027 truckload bid

This is our guidance, not a rule. Adjust for your service needs and how much volume you can commit.

What to watch next

• Tender rejections. Rejections above 13% signal carriers turning down contract freight; watch whether they rise into November.
• Carrier exits. Continued capacity loss, especially from enforcement, would keep pressure on 2027 contract rates.
• Third-quarter carrier earnings. J.B. Hunt opens trucking earnings season this week; listen for rate guidance on contract renewals.
• Diesel. Fuel adds to total cost even where linehaul rates stabilize.

The bigger picture

The freight market is correcting after a long period in which shippers held the leverage. Procurement teams that treat freight as a strategic category, with segmented lanes, indexed fuel terms and carrier scorecards, will secure capacity at a fair price. Teams that run a price-only bid risk winning rates they can’t actually use. Broker consolidation adds to the pressure: see our analysis of the C.H. Robinson–RXO merger. For fuel, see why diesel surcharges will stay high, and for input costs, the Cost Pressure Monitor.