Price trends by category
Where the price of what you buy is heading, category by category, with a clear read on how to respond. Built from U.S. producer price data, updated every month.
Of the 12 categories we track, 7 are rising. Deep sea freight shows the most pressure, up +42.0% at an annualized three-month pace; plastic resins and materials is the softest at −29.9%.
Metals
| Category | 24-month trend | Last month | 3-mo paceannualized | 12 months | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steel mill productsTariff exposure | +1.7% | +40.7% | +23.4% | Rising fast | |
| Aluminum mill shapesTariff exposure | −4.4% | −13.8% | +27.3% | Easing | |
| Copper and brass mill shapesTariff exposure | +3.5% | +1.8% | +20.9% | Rising |
Chemicals & plastics
| Category | 24-month trend | Last month | 3-mo paceannualized | 12 months | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plastic resins and materials | −1.0% | −29.9% | +6.6% | Easing | |
| Industrial chemicals | +0.8% | −6.4% | +13.3% | Easing |
Energy & freight
| Category | 24-month trend | Last month | 3-mo paceannualized | 12 months | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 diesel fuel | +17.7% | −22.1% | +77.8% | Rising fast | |
| Deep sea freight | −0.5% | +42.0% | +32.0% | Rising fast | |
| Truck transportation | +1.9% | +1.3% | +11.6% | Stable |
Electronics & equipment
| Category | 24-month trend | Last month | 3-mo paceannualized | 12 months | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semiconductors and related devicesTariff exposure | −2.0% | −21.2% | −3.1% | Easing | |
| Electrical machinery and equipmentTariff exposure | +1.3% | +7.6% | +13.5% | Rising |
Packaging & wood
| Category | 24-month trend | Last month | 3-mo paceannualized | 12 months | Pressure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LumberTariff exposure | −1.5% | +7.9% | +7.6% | Rising | |
| Converted paper and paperboard (incl. boxes) | +1.0% | +12.9% | +4.4% | Rising |
What each reading means for your category strategy
Lock in pricing where you can: extend fixed-price terms, consider forward buys, and expect suppliers to push increases.
Add index-linked escalation clauses rather than accepting flat increases, and shorten quote validity windows.
Normal sourcing cadence. A good window to run competitive events without price noise.
Avoid long fixed-price commitments and use the decline to renegotiate or re-bid.
How the monitor works
Each category uses a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index series, which tracks what domestic producers receive for their output. That makes it a good proxy for the prices procurement teams pay suppliers, before freight, tariffs and margin.
Pressure is set mainly by the three-month pace, annualized, so it reacts to turns faster than the year-over-year number. A sharp move in the latest month can override it, so a rebound isn't labeled as easing:
- Rising fast: pace of 15% or more; or prices already up 15% on the year and either an 8% pace or a 5% jump in the latest month.
- Rising: pace of 4% or more, or a 3% jump in the latest month.
- Easing: pace of −4% or lower, and no rebound (1% or more) in the latest month.
- Stable: everything else.
Producer prices don't include import duties, so categories flagged for tariff exposure can cost importers more than the index shows. The guidance here is general market context, not advice for any specific contract.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Series IDs are listed on each category page.