The Postal Service announced Oct. 26 that a weekly fuel surcharge tied to EIA diesel and jet fuel prices will hit four domestic package services from January 2027, with percentages published only three to five days before each change.
The IEA does not expect distillate stocks to rebuild before the second half of 2027, and new missile strikes on Saudi energy sites threaten the Gulf export recovery that was easing prices, so fuel clauses in 2027 freight contracts need to hold up for another year.
Contract linehaul is up about 10% to 18% on the year depending on the index, carriers are exiting faster than freight is falling, and analysts say the repricing is only half done. Here is how procurement teams should approach bid season.
Retail diesel is above $6 a gallon after a record above $6.50. Analysts say the announced Russian volumes are small against U.S. demand and the red-dye diesel order is short on specifics, so freight budgets should assume elevated fuel costs.
Our new Cost Pressure Monitor tracks 12 categories procurement teams buy most. Seven are rising, led by steel and deep-sea freight, while aluminum, plastic resins and semiconductors have turned lower.
Middle East Gulf tanker rates hit a record, European diesel cargoes are up about 70% since February, and Morgan Stanley sees oil markets in deficit into early 2027. Here is what that means for freight, energy and petrochemical-based categories.
