Ocean rates split: trans-Pacific stays above $8,000 per FEU while Asia–Europe falls 34% since July; OOCL revenue up 45%
Carriers are earning far more per container on U.S. trades even as European rates slide. For procurement teams heading into 2027 contract talks, the gap shows where leverage is returning and where it isn't yet.
Article summary
- Why it matters: Ocean freight is moving in two directions at once. European shippers are regaining leverage as rates fall, while U.S. importers still face rates several times last year’s. Contract strategy for 2027 should differ by trade lane, not follow one global view.
- What to do first: Segment ocean strategy by lane. On Asia–Europe, push for lower long-term rates now. On the trans-Pacific, avoid locking today’s highs into a 12-month fixed rate.
- Use index-linked contracts. Tie part of your volume to a published rate index with floors and ceilings, so you benefit as markets ease.
- $8,336/FEU
- Far East–U.S. West Coast spot, Oct. 7 (Xeneta)
- −34%
- Far East–North Europe market average since July 1
- +71.8%
- OOCL trans-Pacific revenue, Q3 year over year
- +33.1%
- OOCL average revenue per TEU, Q3
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The details
Rates (Xeneta, as of Oct. 7). Far East–U.S. West Coast spot rates slipped $2 per FEU on Oct. 7, the first daily decline in weeks, but remained at $8,336 per FEU, 1.1% above Sept. 30. Asia–U.S. East Coast averaged $11,512 per FEU, up 0.5% on the week. On Asia–Europe, Far East–North Europe averaged $3,645 per FEU, down 34% since July 1, and Asia–Mediterranean $4,007, down 43%. North Europe–U.S. East Coast fell 1.1% to $2,854.
Xeneta’s Peter Sand said the decline has slowed but the trend is still down, and forwarders are getting better deals in long-term contract talks. European shippers are negotiating contracts as short-term rates fall.
Carrier results. OOCL, majority-owned by Cosco Shipping Holdings, reported third-quarter liner revenue of $3.28 billion, up 45.1% year over year, on volume up 9% to 2.12 million TEU. Average revenue per TEU rose 33.1%. Trans-Pacific revenue jumped 71.8% to $1.44 billion on 13.1% more volume. Asia–Europe revenue rose 45% and Trans-Atlantic 11.9%. In every region, revenue grew faster than volume:
| OOCL trade, Q3 2026 | Revenue | Revenue change | Volume (TEU) | Volume change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans-Pacific | $1.44 billion | +71.8% | 595,139 | +13.1% |
| Asia–Europe | $695.8 million | +45.0% | 399,162 | +15.4% |
| Intra-Asia and Australasia | $947.6 million | +23.7% | 981,336 | +4.6% |
| Trans-Atlantic | $201.8 million | +11.9% | 147,008 | +7.3% |
Over the first nine months of 2026, OOCL’s liner revenue rose 18.9% to $7.96 billion on 6.5% more volume, and trans-Pacific revenue was up 27%. The update did not include costs or earnings, so profitability can’t be judged from it.
What the numbers imply. Dividing revenue by volume, OOCL earned roughly $2,420 per TEU on the trans-Pacific in the third quarter, against about $1,590 a year earlier, a rise of about 52%. On Asia–Europe it earned roughly $1,740 per TEU. These are our calculations from OOCL’s figures, and they include all contract and spot business, not just spot rates.
Capacity and load factors. OOCL’s figures come from an Oct. 9 operational update by its parent, Orient Overseas (International) Ltd. Loadable capacity grew 3.6% in the quarter while the overall load factor rose 4.2%, so ships were fuller as well as better paid. Over nine months, volume reached 6.25 million TEU, average revenue per TEU rose 11.6% and Asia–Europe revenue rose 19% to $1.70 billion. Trans-Pacific revenue was $837.9 million in the third quarter of 2025, on 526,032 TEU, the base behind the 71.8% jump.
What the gap between lanes means for your budget
Rate levels differ so much by lane that a single global ocean budget assumption is likely to be wrong in both directions. Using Xeneta’s Oct. 7 averages:
| Lane | Spot rate per FEU | Cost of 500 FEU a year at that rate |
|---|---|---|
| Far East–U.S. West Coast | $8,336 | about $4.2 million |
| Far East–U.S. East Coast | $11,512 | about $5.8 million |
| Far East–North Europe | $3,645 | about $1.8 million |
| Far East–Mediterranean | $4,007 | about $2.0 million |
| North Europe–U.S. East Coast | $2,854 | about $1.4 million |
These are our calculations at spot rates, before surcharges and before any contract discount. Two things stand out. First, the East Coast costs about $3,176 more per FEU than the West Coast, so importers who can route through the West Coast and move freight inland should price that option against inland trucking or rail costs. Second, every $500 per FEU you negotiate on 500 FEU is worth $250,000 a year, which is why benchmarking each lane matters more than a headline discount.
Fixed, index-linked or spot: choosing by lane
| Lane | Market direction | Our suggested structure for 2027 |
|---|---|---|
| Asia–North Europe and Mediterranean | Falling since July | Push for a lower fixed rate now, with a mid-year review |
| Trans-Pacific to U.S. West Coast | High, first signs of easing | Shorter fixed terms or index-linked rates with a ceiling |
| Trans-Pacific to U.S. East Coast | Highest, still rising slightly | Index-linked with floor and ceiling; keep some volume on spot |
| North Europe–U.S. East Coast | Easing | Fixed rate with a modest cut |
This is our guidance, based on the rate data above. Your volumes, service needs and carrier relationships should decide the final mix.
What procurement teams should do
- Segment ocean strategy by lane. On Asia–Europe, push for lower long-term rates now. On the trans-Pacific, avoid locking today’s highs into a 12-month fixed rate.
- Use index-linked contracts. Tie part of your volume to a published rate index with floors and ceilings, so you benefit as markets ease.
- Benchmark before you sign. Compare carrier offers against current spot and long-term indexes for each lane.
- Pair price with reliability. With on-time arrivals at 27%, trade volume commitments for service terms, not price alone.
Questions to put to carriers and forwarders for 2027
- What share of our volume would you price as fixed, and what share index-linked, and to which index?
- What floor and ceiling would apply to index-linked rates?
- Which services and sailings will you protect from blank sailings, and what happens to our allocation if a sailing is cancelled?
- How will bunker surcharges be calculated and adjusted, separately from the base rate?
- What on-time performance will you commit to on our lanes, and what credit applies if you miss it?
On Asia–Europe, where rates have fallen sharply, it is reasonable to push for a lower fixed rate now. On the trans-Pacific, where carriers’ revenue per container is up by roughly half, avoid fixing today’s level for a full year without a review point.
What to watch next
- Trans-Pacific peak. Watch whether the first daily decline on Oct. 7 becomes a trend as peak season ends.
- Blank sailings. Carriers are expected to blank at least 13% of Far East–North America capacity in October to support rates.
- 2027 contract season. Asia–Europe deals are being signed now; trans-Pacific contracts are typically negotiated in early spring.
The bigger picture
Carrier revenue growing far faster than volume means pricing, not demand, is doing the work on U.S. trades. That margin is the cushion procurement teams can negotiate against as more capacity returns. The European slide shows how quickly leverage can shift once demand growth slows.
Questions procurement teams are asking
Are ocean freight rates falling?
On Asia–Europe and Asia–Mediterranean, yes: market averages are down 34% and 43% since July 1. Trans-Pacific rates to the U.S. remain high, with the West Coast spot average at $8,336 per FEU on Oct. 7.
Should shippers sign long-term ocean contracts now?
On lanes where spot rates are falling, forwarders report better long-term deals. On the trans-Pacific, weigh a shorter term or index-linked pricing rather than locking in today's elevated levels for a full year.
How much more are carriers earning per container on the trans-Pacific?
By our calculation from OOCL's third-quarter update, trans-Pacific revenue per TEU was about $2,420, up roughly 52% from about $1,590 a year earlier.
Should importers sign a fixed ocean freight contract for 2027?
It depends on the lane. On Asia–Europe, where rates have fallen 34% to 43% since July, locking a lower fixed rate now can make sense. On the trans-Pacific, where rates remain near $8,300 to $11,500 per FEU, shorter terms or index-linked pricing with a ceiling avoid locking in today's highs. This is our guidance.
How much more does it cost to ship from Asia to the U.S. East Coast than the West Coast?
On Xeneta's Oct. 7 data, Far East–U.S. East Coast averaged $11,512 per FEU against $8,336 to the West Coast, a gap of about $3,176 per container by our calculation.
How we reported this
This signal report draws on 2 sources, listed below, and reflects figures as reported on October 14, 2026. The sections on why it matters and what procurement teams should do are Procurement Signal analysis. It is not legal or financial advice. See our editorial standards.
