Ocean schedule reliability falls to 27% as vessel delays average six days; plan October bookings with extra lead time

The details

Xeneta’s September Schedule Reliability Scorecard shows:

• Global on-time reliability of 27%, down 2 points and the fourth straight monthly decline. The average delay across all arrivals reached six days, up 2.4 days since the start of the second quarter. Xeneta does not expect reliability to bottom out in October.
• Asia–North America: 20% on time, unchanged, with an average delay of 6.9 days, up 0.8 days.
• Far East–Europe: 4% on time with a 9.9-day average delay, the worst monthly result since September 2021.
• Carriers: Every tracked carrier posted its highest average delay of the past 12 months. Maersk was the most reliable at 47%, down from 51%. Several carriers hit 12-month lows: Hapag-Lloyd 45%, CMA CGM 30%, Cosco 18% and Yang Ming 4%. The Gemini network of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd fell from 70% on time in June to 40% in September, and weekly data showed 28% in early October.

Causes cited include typhoons in Asia, bunker-cost pressure, strong peak-season demand and Chinese port congestion that is now causing berth delays in Europe and North America. Singapore’s average daily queue nearly doubled to 22 ships, with the average wait rising from 1.9 to 3.1 days. Shanghai’s anchorage queue shortened from 101 to 86 vessels, but waits lengthened from 1.9 to 2.7 days.

Rates remain high. The China–U.S. West Coast spot average was $7,717 per FEU in early October, more than four times the $1,778 of September 2025. Long-term rates rose 26% month over month to $3,649 per FEU as of Oct. 1. Carriers blanked 8% of planned Far East–North America capacity in September and have announced at least 13% for October, along with 17% on Far East–Europe.

Where queues are longest. Beyond Singapore and Shanghai, Xeneta’s data shows Africa as the most congested region, with 32% of vessels waiting an average of 2.5 days, while 30% of vessels in Northeast Asia waited an average of 1.6 days, according to FreightWaves. The carrier performance spread narrowed to 43 points from 45. The China–U.S. West Coast spot average of $7,717 was 8% above early September. September’s blank sailings, 6% on Far East–Europe and 8% on Far East–North America, were the third-lowest in 21 months, and planned Far East–Europe capacity for October is the highest in 22 months, leaving carriers little room to absorb delays by cancelling sailings.

Reliability at a glance

Figures from Xeneta.

The gap between spot and contract. At $7,717 per FEU, the China–U.S. West Coast spot average was a little over twice the $3,649 long-term average, by our calculation, a gap of about $4,068 per container. Shippers on long-term contracts are paying much less, but only for cargo that actually moves under the contract. When sailings are blanked or cargo is rolled, the overflow often moves at spot. That makes allocation and roll protection worth nearly as much as the contract rate itself.

What six days of delay costs

A six-day average delay is not just a planning nuisance. For a business importing $10 million of goods a month by ocean, an extra six days in transit ties up roughly $2 million more in inventory at any time, by our calculation. At a 10% annual carrying cost, that is about $200,000 a year, before any stockouts, expedited freight or detention charges. Your numbers will differ, but the math is worth running before you set 2027 safety stock.

What procurement teams should do

• Add lead time now. Xeneta advises extra lead time for October bookings. Update planning lead times in your ERP so reorder points reflect reality.
• Ask which services are protected. Before booking, ask carriers and forwarders which loops are least likely to be blanked.
• Put reliability in the tender. For 2027 contracts, include schedule reliability, port rotations and unscheduled calls in carrier accountability, not just rate.
• Spread allocations. Split volume across carriers and alliances to limit exposure to a single network’s delays.
• Review inventory policy. For critical imported parts, recalculate safety stock using current delay variability, not last year’s averages.

Updating lead times in your planning system

1. Pull actual transit data for the past three months by lane, from booking confirmation to arrival at your facility.
2. Use the spread, not just the average. Set safety stock on the variability you are seeing; a six-day average can hide two-week delays.
3. Update planned lead times in your ERP or planning tool so reorder points move.
4. Flag critical parts where a stockout stops production, and set a higher service level for them.
5. Review monthly until reliability recovers, then step buffers back down.

This is our recommended approach.

What to put in 2027 ocean contracts

Xeneta advises shippers to make reliability, port rotations, unscheduled calls and capacity management central to carrier accountability ahead of 2027 tenders. In practice, that can mean:

• Service commitments by string. Name the services and sailings your allocation depends on.
• Reliability reporting. Monthly on-time data by service, not just a global figure.
• Blank sailing rules. Notice periods and guaranteed space on the next sailing when one is cancelled.
• Port rotation changes. Advance notice when a service drops or swaps a port that matters to you.
• Remedies. Credits or volume flexibility when reliability falls below an agreed level.

What to watch next

• October reliability. Xeneta does not expect reliability to bottom out in October.
• Asian port congestion. Singapore’s queue nearly doubled to 22 ships; watch whether it clears or spreads.
• Gemini network. Its fall from 70% to 40% on-time is worth tracking if you rely on Maersk or Hapag-Lloyd.

The bigger picture

Reliability this low has historically lasted months, not weeks. With spot rates still elevated on the trans-Pacific and falling on Asia–Europe, the 2027 tender season is a chance to trade volume commitments for service guarantees. Teams that negotiate on reliability, not just price, will carry less buffer stock next year.