Ocean freight outlook: two markets, one contract season
Trans-Pacific rates are several times last year's while Asia–Europe rates have fallen sharply, and only about a quarter of ships arrive on time. How ocean freight is priced and how to approach 2027 contracts.
Lock lower long-term rates on Asia–Europe and keep trans-Pacific terms short or index-linked.
◷ 2027 contract season, now through Q1Key takeaways
- Ocean freight is two markets: trans-Pacific spot rates hold above $8,000 per FEU to the U.S. West Coast while Asia–Europe has fallen 34% since July.
- Only 27% of vessels arrived on time in September, with an average delay of six days.
- Carrier revenue is growing far faster than volume, so pricing, not demand, is doing the work on U.S. trades.
- Our move: lock lower long-term rates on Asia–Europe; keep trans-Pacific terms short or index-linked.
How ocean freight is priced
Container shipping is sold by the container, usually quoted per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) or twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU). The total price has a base rate plus surcharges: bunker (fuel), peak season, congestion, canal and terminal charges among them. Shippers buy either through annual or multi-month contracts with carriers, through forwarders who aggregate volume, or on the spot market.
The key difference from most categories is that a contract is not a guarantee of space. Carriers allocate capacity across contract and spot customers, and when ships are full, lower-paying contract cargo can be “rolled” to a later sailing. That is why allocation, roll protection and blank-sailing terms matter as much as the rate.
What is driving prices now
Split markets. Far East–U.S. West Coast spot rates were $8,336 per FEU on Oct. 7, while Far East–North Europe averaged $3,645, down 34% since July, according to Xeneta data reported by FreightWaves.
Carrier pricing power. OOCL’s third-quarter trans-Pacific revenue rose 71.8% on 13.1% more volume. Revenue growing far faster than volume means price, not demand, is doing the work.
Reliability. Only 27% of vessels arrived on time in September, the fourth straight monthly decline, with an average delay of six days, according to Xeneta. Typhoons, port congestion in Asia and bunker costs are the main causes.
Routing. The Port of Los Angeles handled a record 1.04 million TEUs in September as disruption on the Suez and Panama routes pushed more cargo to the West Coast.
Where the negotiating leverage sits
Balanced overall, but very different by lane. On Asia–Europe, falling rates hand leverage to shippers in contract talks now. On the trans-Pacific, carriers still hold it, though the first daily rate decline in weeks came on Oct. 7.
Supply risk: what could go wrong
- Delays of a week or more that force extra safety stock or expedited freight.
- Blank sailings that cancel the space you planned on.
- Rolled cargo pushed to spot rates.
- Canal restrictions at Panama in a dry season, which shift cargo and costs.
How to buy it now
- Segment by lane. Push for lower fixed rates on Asia–Europe; on the trans-Pacific, use shorter terms or index-linked rates with a ceiling.
- Negotiate service, not just price. Named services, roll protection, blank-sailing notice and reliability reporting.
- Split volume across carriers and alliances.
- Update planning lead times using current delay data.
- Benchmark every lane against spot and long-term indexes before signing.
Our ocean contract guide covers each term in detail.
What to watch
- Whether trans-Pacific rates keep easing after peak season.
- Monthly schedule reliability data.
- Blank sailing announcements and Panama Canal advisories.
Price trend
U.S. producer price index for deep sea freight (BLS series PCU483111483111), data through Aug 2026. Full price history.
Our coverage of ocean freight
- Boluda Shipping to buy Samskip, building a 32-vessel shortsea network from Northern Europe to West AfricaThe Spanish family-owned operator is buying the Rotterdam-based multimodal group outright, with the deal set to close Jan. 1, 2027 and combine 21 maritime terminals, five rail terminals and more than 500 trucks.
- Hormuz attacks spread to container ships: one feeder sunk, Gulf bookings frozen, transit surcharges up to $1,000At least 10 vessels were struck in or near the strait since Oct. 11, the sharpest attack wave since the war began, and Maersk now charges $1,000 per container for any transiting ship.
- Ocean schedule reliability falls to 27% as vessel delays average six days; plan October bookings with extra lead timeXeneta's September data shows the fourth straight monthly drop in on-time arrivals, with Asia–North America delays near seven days and spot rates from China more than four times last year's level. Reliability should be in every 2027 carrier tender.
- Ocean rates split: trans-Pacific stays above $8,000 per FEU while Asia–Europe falls 34% since July; OOCL revenue up 45%Carriers are earning far more per container on U.S. trades even as European rates slide. For procurement teams heading into 2027 contract talks, the gap shows where leverage is returning and where it isn't yet.
- Port of Los Angeles handles a record 1.04 million TEUs as shippers shift cargo away from the Panama and Suez routesSeptember was the busiest month in the port's 118-year history. Canal disruptions and fuel costs are pushing about 5% more cargo to Los Angeles at origin, and another early-2027 frontloading wave is likely.
- Steel, ocean freight and diesel lead input-cost pressure; resins and chips are easingOur new Cost Pressure Monitor tracks 12 categories procurement teams buy most. Seven are rising, led by steel and deep-sea freight, while aluminum, plastic resins and semiconductors have turned lower.
Questions procurement teams ask
Why are trans-Pacific container rates so high?
An early, firm peak season, typhoon and port congestion in Asia, carriers blanking sailings to manage capacity, and longer routes that raise fuel costs have all supported U.S.-bound rates.
What is the difference between contract and spot ocean rates?
Contract rates are agreed for a period, often 12 months, with committed volumes. Spot rates are the market price for a shipment now. In a rising market, carriers may roll contract cargo when ships are full, pushing it to spot.
What is a blank sailing?
A scheduled sailing that a carrier cancels, usually to reduce capacity and support rates. Carriers announced at least 13% of Far East–North America capacity blanked for October.
Sources
- Procurement Signal — Ocean rates split
- Procurement Signal — Schedule reliability at 27%
- Procurement Signal — Port of Los Angeles record
- Procurement Signal — Ocean freight contract negotiation guide
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED — Deep sea freight (PCU483111483111)
Leverage, supply risk and the recommended move are Procurement Signal's editorial assessment, built from the sources above. This is general market analysis, not advice on a specific contract. See our editorial standards.