Cross-border trucking with Mexico tightens as 25,000 driver visas are withdrawn and Laredo tender rejections climb
Visa withdrawals, an aging driver pool and September border restrictions are squeezing capacity on U.S.–Mexico lanes. Providers expect tight conditions into 2027, so nearshored supply chains need firmer freight plans.
Article summary
- Why it matters: Nearshoring to Mexico shortened supply chains on paper. In practice, it moved risk to the border. When qualified drivers and crossing capacity shrink, lead times for Mexican-sourced parts and finished goods stretch, and freight costs rise. Procurement teams that moved spend to Mexico need freight plans as deliberate as their supplier plans.
- What to do first: Map border dependence. List the parts and products that cross from Mexico, the crossings they use and the carriers that move them.
- Lock committed capacity. For critical flows, contract with carriers that hold U.S. authority and have qualified drivers, with volume commitments in both directions where possible.
- ~25,000
- Mexican truck drivers whose U.S. visas were withdrawn (per CANACAR)
- ~700
- tractors stranded during September border restrictions
- 54
- TRAFFIX Mexico cross-border index for October (above 50 = tight)
- 25–35%
- rate increases on some Canadian corridors in about six weeks
On this page
The details
U.S. authorities have withdrawn visas from about 25,000 Mexican freight drivers, according to C.H. Robinson’s market report, which cites the Mexican trucking association CANACAR. Patricio Gutierrez of TRAFFIX says the core problem is a shortage of qualified drivers holding B-1 visas and of trucks authorized to operate in the U.S. Many drivers are in their 50s and 60s, and security concerns and modest pay deter younger workers.
From Sept. 9 to 14, restrictions on southbound empty-truck crossings at Eagle Pass and Brownsville, Texas, reportedly cut daily commercial crossings from about 1,000 to 300–400 and left nearly 700 tractors stranded on the U.S. side. Some carriers rerouted through Laredo, adding miles, fuel and transit time.
Market indicators are tightening. In Laredo, FreightWaves SONAR’s outbound tender volume index rose from 39.95 in mid-September to 51.95 on Oct. 11, and its weighted rejection index moved from −0.74 to +0.65. TRAFFIX’s October cross-border index reads 54 for Mexico and 57 for Canada, where readings above 50 signal tight conditions. Some Canadian corridors rose 25% to 35% in about six weeks, and some carriers are handing back contracted freight because earlier rates no longer cover costs.
Costs are rising for carriers, too. Financing for trucks now costs 8% to 9%, against cheap pandemic-era loans, and carriers face higher driver wages, insurance and Mexican diesel costs.
Canada is tight as well. TRAFFIX’s Canada index reads 57. Inbound U.S.-to-Canada freight is scarce, so carriers struggle to find return loads; Florida-bound trucks can wait days for freight or run empty for hundreds of miles. Carriers are returning contract freight they can no longer haul at old rates, and transactional volume on the Canadian side has exceeded COVID-era levels, according to a TRAFFIX executive.
TRAFFIX expects tight capacity through the end of 2026 and into 2027, and C.H. Robinson warned that qualified driver availability could tighten further as fourth-quarter volumes rise. The TRAFFIX index combines more than 10 indicators of cost, capacity, demand and trade policy, mostly from public government and trade data.
Why higher rates aren’t bringing in new trucks. After the pandemic surge, high rates quickly drew new carriers into the market. This time, TRAFFIX’s Alex Fuller said, “we’re not seeing that,” because financing costs, insurance and wages are all higher, according to FreightWaves. He said rates won’t see “the immediate drop like we saw a couple of years ago.” Lance Halliday, TRAFFIX’s regional director of carrier sales in Toronto, said “there’s still a severe lack of inbound” freight into Canada and called Florida “a no-go zone” for Canadian carriers. He doesn’t expect the picture to change over the next three to six months. Patricio Gutierrez said some Mexican shippers are resisting higher rates even as diesel costs and capacity limits push carriers to raise them. Despite the September disruptions, load-to-truck ratios and volumes stayed relatively stable at the major Texas crossings.
What the numbers mean
By our calculation, cutting daily commercial crossings at Eagle Pass and Brownsville from about 1,000 to 300–400 removed 60% to 70% of crossing capacity at those ports for nearly a week. Laredo’s outbound tender volume index rose about 30% between mid-September and Oct. 11, and its rejection index turning positive means carriers began turning down more contracted loads than before. Those are the conditions in which shippers relying on contract rates start paying spot premiums.
How a cross-border truck move usually works
Most freight from Mexico doesn’t travel on one truck from factory to destination. A Mexican carrier typically hauls the trailer to the border, a short-haul transfer carrier pulls it across and through customs, and a U.S. carrier takes it on from a yard on the U.S. side. Each handoff depends on drivers with the right credentials and trucks authorized for the U.S. When B-1 visas are withdrawn or crossing rules change, the transfer step is where loads back up. Through-trailer service with one carrier exists but relies on the same scarce drivers and authority.
Questions for cross-border carriers and brokers
- How many of your drivers hold valid B-1 visas, and how many trucks are authorized to operate in the U.S.?
- Which crossings do you use, and what is your reroute plan if one is restricted?
- Who are your transfer carriers, and are they committed to our volume?
- How will you handle our freight in the fourth quarter as volumes rise?
- What rate change would you need to keep our contracted loads, rather than returning them?
What procurement teams should do
- Map border dependence. List the parts and products that cross from Mexico, the crossings they use and the carriers that move them.
- Lock committed capacity. For critical flows, contract with carriers that hold U.S. authority and have qualified drivers, with volume commitments in both directions where possible.
- Qualify more than one crossing. Laredo, Eagle Pass and Brownsville behave differently under restrictions. Pre-approve alternates.
- Add buffer for the fourth quarter. C.H. Robinson warns driver availability could tighten further as fourth-quarter volumes rise.
- Review contract rates. If carriers are returning freight, rates below market won’t hold. Renegotiate before service fails.
Cross-border risk by lane
| Lane | Current condition | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Laredo crossings | Volume and rejections rising as freight reroutes | Confirm capacity commitments and transload partners |
| Eagle Pass and Brownsville | Exposed to sudden crossing restrictions | Keep a reroute plan through Laredo with agreed costs |
| U.S. to Canada | Few return loads, rates up sharply on some corridors | Accept that contract rates must reset; avoid rejected awards |
| Florida-bound Canadian freight | Long waits and empty miles | Expect premiums; consolidate loads where possible |
This is our assessment based on the reported market data.
What to watch next
- Visa policy. Further restrictions on B-1 visas for Mexican drivers would tighten capacity again.
- Border crossing rules. Another round of empty-truck restrictions at Eagle Pass or Brownsville would push more freight through Laredo.
- Contract compliance. Watch tender acceptance on cross-border lanes; TRAFFIX expects tight capacity into 2027.
The bigger picture
Cross-border capacity is now a constraint on nearshoring strategy, alongside supplier capability and tariffs. Autonomous trucks are starting on the Dallas–Laredo lane, but not at a scale that changes the 2027 picture. For now, the fix is contract structure and contingency planning.
Questions procurement teams are asking
Why is cross-border trucking capacity with Mexico tight?
U.S. authorities have withdrawn visas from about 25,000 Mexican freight drivers, the driver pool is aging, and September restrictions on southbound empty trucks at Eagle Pass and Brownsville stranded equipment. Providers expect tightness into 2027.
How can procurement protect nearshored supply from cross-border capacity problems?
Contract committed cross-border capacity with carriers that hold U.S. operating authority, qualify more than one crossing, and build buffer time into plans for Mexican-sourced parts in the fourth quarter.
How long will cross-border trucking capacity stay tight?
TRAFFIX expects tight capacity on Mexico and Canada lanes through the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by driver shortages, visa restrictions, higher costs and trade uncertainty.
Why is cross-border trucking capacity between Mexico and the U.S. tight?
U.S. authorities have withdrawn visas from about 25,000 Mexican freight drivers, according to C.H. Robinson citing CANACAR, and there is a shortage of qualified B-1 visa drivers and U.S.-authorized trucks. Restrictions at Eagle Pass and Brownsville in September cut daily crossings sharply.
How long will cross-border trucking stay tight?
TRAFFIX expects tight capacity through the end of 2026 and into 2027, and C.H. Robinson warned driver availability could tighten further as fourth-quarter volumes rise.
How we reported this
This story draws on 1 source, listed below, and reflects figures as reported on October 14, 2026. The sections on why it matters and what procurement teams should do are Procurement Signal analysis. It is not legal or financial advice. See our editorial standards.
