Trump implements, then waives, Graham Act tariffs: India and China sourcing dodge 100% duties, for now

The details

The order. President Trump signed an executive order on Friday, Oct. 16, posted by the White House late that evening, that implements the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 — the law he signed in September, named for the late senator — and then waives its central measures in the same document, according to Reuters and the IANS reading of the text. The law required duties of up to 100% on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude and gas, with a deadline of Sunday, Oct. 18.

What the order specified, before waiving it. Per the order’s language reported by IANS: a 100% duty increase on goods from the five largest importers of Russian-origin crude oil and natural gas if they knowingly make new purchases on or after Oct. 18; the same 100% increase on the top five facilitators of Russian sanctions evasion; and a 500% increase on goods of Russian origin. Section 4 then waived the duties under sections 112 and 113 and most sanctions on foreign persons. The waivers run until the president or the secretary of state, consulting Treasury and the trade representative, decides otherwise. The order does not name any country and leaves existing Russia sanctions under earlier executive orders untouched.

The 60-day clock. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday that the president will use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact and that no final decision has been made, Reuters reported. That points, by our count, to a decision window closing in mid-December. Zelensky called the waiver “wrong” because it emboldens Moscow, and the U.S. Trade Representative must monitor countries’ purchases of Russian-origin crude and report which are the top five evasion facilitators — a list that would define the next tariff wave.

The India angle. Rubio is traveling to Samarkand, Mumbai and Jamnagar from Oct. 17 to 22, meeting External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar on Oct. 20 and visiting the world’s largest refinery complex. Washington already removed a 25% Russia-linked duty on Indian goods in February under a framework that cut the reciprocal tariff on India to 18%, and the two sides are close on a first trade-agreement tranche. In a bipartisan letter dated Oct. 15, Rep. Michael McCaul and Rep. Jim Costa urged full implementation and asked that any waiver be “narrow, time-limited, and tied to measurable reductions” — the order’s waivers are none of those.

What buyers should do

• Model the 100% scenario now. Price India- and China-origin categories as if the duty lands mid-December. That exposure number belongs in this quarter’s risk register, not in a drawer.
• Add tariff-return triggers to contracts. Suppliers and importers of record should give notice if their Russian feedstock exposure changes; consider pass-through and renegotiation language for India-origin lanes.
• Watch the USTR facilitator report. The list of top-five evasion enablers will show which countries get named next.
• Don’t over-rotate sourcing yet. A waiver that can be revoked is not a repeal; diversify selectively where switching costs pay off either way.

The bigger picture

This is the second live-duty cliff in a week: 178 Section 301 exclusions expire Nov. 10, and the U.S.-China 30-for-30 tariff framework rests on the same negotiation logic — pressure first, pause second. For fuel and freight budgets, the Russia détente continues to shape prices, as our diesel report noted on the Trump-Putin supply deal. Procurement teams should plan for a tariff system where headline rates change by executive order, and where the review window — not the rate table — is the real deadline.