U.S. and China agree to cut tariffs on about $60 billion of goods: what the '30-for-30' list means for sourcing
Each side will lower duties on roughly $30 billion of the other's goods, from household items and toys to U.S. farm products, coal and medical equipment. The cuts take effect only after domestic legal steps, and covered trade has already shrunk.
Article summary
- Why it matters: This is the first concrete tariff relief from the U.S.–China talks this year, and it targets consumer and household categories that many procurement teams still source from China. But the list is narrow, the start date isn’t set, and the trade it covers has already fallen sharply. Treat it as a planning input, not a reason to reverse diversification.
- What to do first: Map your China spend to the final list. Match at the tariff-line level once the notice is published; a product family on the list may not mean every SKU is.
- Model landed cost both ways. Compare China-origin cost with the cut against your diversified sources, including freight and lead time.
- ~$60B
- two-way trade covered, about $30 billion each way
- 77
- U.S. product entries proposed for cuts
- 1,619
- items on China's list
- ~90%
- of covered products to get MFN treatment, per China
On this page
The details
China’s Commerce Ministry announced the plan on Sept. 28, after President Xi’s Sept. 25 visit to Washington. It was negotiated through the Board of Trade, a government-to-government mechanism set up after President Trump’s May visit to Beijing. Each side will cut tariffs on about $30 billion of the other’s imports, roughly $60 billion of two-way trade, against $415 billion of total two-way goods trade last year.
What’s on the lists:
| Side | Size of list | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. cuts on Chinese goods | 77 product entries | Fireworks, household goods, toys, kitchenware, sporting equipment |
| China’s cuts on U.S. goods | 1,619 items | Meat, seafood, dairy, wheat, corn, sorghum, coal, timber, medical equipment |
About 90% of covered products would get most-favored-nation treatment, according to China’s Commerce Ministry. The two sides also extended their trade truce until January.
The trade has already shrunk. The $30 billion targets are based on 2024 trade. Covered Chinese goods fell from $32.3 billion in 2024 to $23.2 billion in 2025, and covered U.S. goods from $29.7 billion to $19.3 billion. Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu called the macroeconomic scale “negligible.” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deal improves market access for “about 30 percent of US exports to China.”
Side commitments. Soybeans are excluded, but China committed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans a year through 2028 and at least 10 million metric tons of U.S. coal in 2027 and again in 2028, according to the White House. A new agricultural working group is due to meet by the end of 2026. Export controls and Taiwan remain unresolved.
What else was agreed, and the politics. China has a goal of buying at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products a year through 2028, and progress has been slow, according to Farm Progress. Grains on China’s list include wheat, corn and sorghum. Hutong Research’s Feng Chucheng said keeping soybeans on a separate track gives Beijing leverage ahead of the November midterms, because purchases matter to farm states. Bloomberg Economics’ Chang Shu said the goods are mostly agricultural and medical products on the U.S. export side and low-end consumer goods on the Chinese side. Chinese appliance makers Joyoung and Bear Electric Appliance rose sharply in Shenzhen on the news, a sign of which Chinese exporters expect to benefit. China’s Commerce Ministry said the arrangement would “create favorable conditions” for those exports.
How far the covered trade has already fallen
By our calculation from the figures above, the Chinese goods on the U.S. list fell about 28% in value from 2024 to 2025, and the U.S. goods on China’s list about 35%. Much of that trade had already moved to other sources or been priced out by duties. Lower tariffs won’t automatically bring it back: suppliers who left China have built new capacity elsewhere, and buyers have qualified them.
Timeline
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | President Trump visits Beijing; Board of Trade set up |
| Sept. 25, 2026 | President Xi visits Washington |
| Sept. 28, 2026 | China announces the “30-for-30” lists |
| Nov. 10, 2026 | 178 Section 301 China exclusions expire |
| End of 2026 | New agricultural working group due to meet |
| January 2027 | Trade truce expires unless extended |
What it means by category
| Category | Likely effect | Our read |
|---|---|---|
| Housewares, kitchenware, toys | Lower duties once in force | Re-quote China-origin SKUs on the list; keep alternate suppliers |
| Sporting goods | Lower duties on listed lines | Check exact tariff lines before changing sourcing |
| Fireworks and seasonal goods | Lower duties | Timing matters for 2027 seasonal buys |
| Everything not on the list | No change | Section 301, forced-labor and other duties still apply |
What procurement teams should do
- Map your China spend to the final list. Match at the tariff-line level once the notice is published; a product family on the list may not mean every SKU is.
- Model landed cost both ways. Compare China-origin cost with the cut against your diversified sources, including freight and lead time.
- Don’t unwind diversification yet. The cuts depend on legal steps not yet complete, and the truce runs only to January.
- Watch the expiring exclusions. Separately, 178 Section 301 exclusions expire Nov. 10, which can raise costs on other China-origin goods.
Questions to ask China-based suppliers
- Which of the products you sell us appear on the final U.S. list, at the 10-digit tariff line?
- When the cut takes effect, will you pass it through, and from which ship date?
- Which other duties will still apply, including Section 301 and the forced-labor tariff?
- How quickly could you increase volume if we moved some back?
- What happens to our pricing if the truce lapses in January?
When it makes sense to move volume back
Moving volume back to China makes sense only where three things hold: the product is on the final list at the tariff-line level, the landed-cost saving survives the other duties that still apply, and the savings outweigh the cost of re-qualification and the risk of the truce lapsing. For most categories, a better first step is to re-quote existing China suppliers and use the result in negotiations with diversified sources. This is our view.
What to watch next
- Effective dates. Look for U.S. and Chinese notices completing domestic procedures.
- The January truce deadline. Two more Trump–Xi meetings are expected; a lapse could change the picture quickly.
- Agricultural purchases. Progress toward China’s farm purchase goals will signal whether the framework holds.
The bigger picture
The “30-for-30” list shows how U.S.–China trade policy now moves: small, negotiated lists rather than broad resets. For procurement, the lesson is to manage China exposure line by line, with origin, tariff and alternative supplier data ready to act on when lists change.
Questions procurement teams are asking
When do the U.S.–China tariff cuts take effect?
Only after both governments complete their required domestic legal procedures. No effective date had been set when the lists were announced on Sept. 28, 2026.
Which Chinese goods are covered by the U.S. tariff cuts?
The U.S. list has 77 product entries, including fireworks, household goods, toys, kitchenware and sporting equipment. Check the final notice for exact tariff lines.
Are soybeans included?
No. Soybeans are excluded from the tariff cuts. China separately committed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans a year through 2028.
What products are covered by the U.S.–China 30-for-30 tariff cuts?
The U.S. list has 77 product entries, including fireworks, household goods, toys, kitchenware and sporting equipment. China's list covers 1,619 items, including meat, seafood, dairy, grains, coal, timber and medical equipment.
Should we move sourcing back to China because of the tariff cuts?
Not yet for most categories. The cuts are narrow, start dates aren't set, other duties still apply and the truce runs only to January. Re-quoting China suppliers for listed products is a sensible first step.
How we reported this
This story draws on 2 sources, listed below, and reflects figures as reported on September 28, 2026. The sections on why it matters and what procurement teams should do are Procurement Signal analysis. It is not legal or financial advice. See our editorial standards.
