September purchasing hit a 2026 high while shortages returned, GEP's volatility index shows
Global manufacturers bought inputs at the fastest pace since May as shortages of oil and oil-based products deepened and transportation costs rose for the first time since April, the S&P Global–GEP index found.
Article summary
- Why it matters: The GEP index is an early warning on the inputs you buy next quarter. September’s readings say factories are ramping purchases into Q4 at the same time shortages and freight costs are turning back up — a combination that historically lands as supplier price increases and tighter availability. Teams that trimmed safety stock since June are doing so as oil-based inputs get harder to source.
- What to do first: Price your oil-linked exposure. Petroleum derivatives, basic chemicals and freight all inherit crude moves; ask suppliers for index pass-through mechanics before Q4 orders, not after.
- Time bids against the ramp. If factory purchasing is accelerating into Q4, lane and input auctions run in November face tighter capacity — lock contract rates earlier in the cycle where possible instead of riding spot into the surge.
- 0.87
- global volatility index in September, from 1.05 in August
- 1.13
- North America index, its highest since June
- First since May
- increase in reported material shortages
- Nov. 11
- next index release
The details
The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index, released Oct. 12 by GEP and S&P Global, showed:
- Demand: global manufacturers’ input purchasing accelerated to its strongest growth since May, close to the 2026 high, led by the U.S., Germany, South Korea and Taiwan.
- Shortages: the items-in-short-supply indicator rose for the first time since May, driven by a marked increase in shortages of oil and oil-based products.
- Transportation: transportation cost inflation intensified as global oil prices climbed through September — the first average increase in global logistics prices since April.
- Inventories: safety stockpiling kept falling from its June peak, though buffers remain historically high.
- Labor: backlogs caused by staff shortages eased, so workforce capacity is less of a constraint than in August.
Regional scores tell a split story:
| Region | September | August | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia | 1.49 | 1.24 | Three-month high; demand up, supply tighter |
| North America | 1.13 | 0.87 | Highest since June on a U.S. manufacturing resurgence |
| Europe | 0.66 | 1.27 | Lowest disruption since March |
| U.K. | 0.59 | 1.10 | Stockpiling pared back |
The global index itself eased to 0.87 from 1.05, but stayed above zero, meaning capacity remains stretched. “The priority shifts from simply protecting inventory to securing supply and controlling costs,” said John Piatek, GEP consulting vice president. “If demand continues to build through the fourth quarter, businesses that wait will face tighter availability and higher input costs.”
What buyers should do
- Price your oil-linked exposure. Petroleum derivatives, basic chemicals and freight all inherit crude moves; ask suppliers for index pass-through mechanics before Q4 orders, not after.
- Time bids against the ramp. If factory purchasing is accelerating into Q4, lane and input auctions run in November face tighter capacity — lock contract rates earlier in the cycle where possible instead of riding spot into the surge.
- Re-underwrite stock policy deliberately. Cutting buffers while shortages rise is a choice, not hygiene. Segment SKUs by criticality and hold cover only where substitution is slow.
- Watch the transatlantic split. Europe’s pressure is easing while North America’s builds; that divergence is an opening for EU-origin substitution on inputs sourced into the U.S.
What to watch next
- The November reading of the index, due 8 a.m. ET, Nov. 11, 2026.
- Whether October’s shortage rise concentrates in oil-based products or widens into metals and electronics — ISM’s prices detail from September’s report pointed the same direction.
- Freight responses to the demand ramp, on top of the diesel supply picture tightening into 2027.
The bigger picture
The pattern is the stockpiling cycle unwinding under new pressure: manufacturers front-loaded purchases through May, cut buffers since June, and now face re-accelerating demand and fresh shortages — the same conditions that made 2021-23 scar tissue. The index suggests Q4 input inflation risk without the panic indicators of mid-2026: backlogs from staffing are falling and Europe is calm. Budget owners should read this as a “secure and price now” signal for energy-linked categories rather than a disruption alarm.
Questions procurement teams are asking
What is the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index?
A monthly leading indicator produced by S&P Global and GEP from PMI survey data of about 27,000 businesses in more than 40 countries. It weights purchasing volumes, shortages, transport prices, stockpiling, staff-shortage backlogs and item shortages. A value above 0 means supply chain capacity is being stretched; below 0 means capacity is underutilized.
Is the September 2026 index reading an increase or a decrease?
Both, depending on the measure. The global index eased to 0.87 from 1.05 in August, but its components moved the other way: purchasing growth hit its strongest since May, shortages rose for the first time since May, and transportation costs increased for the first time since April.
How we reported this
This signal report draws on 3 sources, listed below, and reflects figures as reported on October 12, 2026. The sections on why it matters and what procurement teams should do are Procurement Signal analysis. It is not legal or financial advice. See our editorial standards.
